Moncrieff – Australia 2025

Just noticed that the pro-LNP lean of this seat has been gradually dropping over the past few years. In 2007, it was around 14 points more LNP than QLD state average, in 2022 it was only 7 points above. So over time, trend permitting, this seat might become more contestable for Labor.

@ GPPS maybe it maybe a Teal/Greens rather than Labor

Moncrieff will never vote for a party that isn’t uneducated, anti-science, anti-equality, fascist, and that doesn’t give everything to the rich. This seat undoubtedly, like the rest of the Gold Coast is a stronghold for Murdoch Co, and the lies that are put out. I would absolutely love to be proven wrong, But I’m afraid it will be at least a couple of decades before this has even a remote chance of changing.

Perhaps a conservative independent (Clive Palmer, wealthy businessman) type independent could win here. but they will not be progressive on fiscal issues.

The only hope is the Younger generations (under 40) like Kos Samaras likes to make us believe will continue going to the left. HOWEVER if you look at what recently happened in the Netherlands. A far-right bloke got allot of support from younger voters. Because they were attracted to his populist/anti-government, anti-woke, anti-immigration approach. And I could see a similar movement occurring here in future.

What is clear to me is that he is a million times more effective than Pauline Hanson and that the right will be dreaming to get someone like him rise here, and I’m afraid it could happen.

Did “Daniel” log in under the wrong account or did he just forget to pretend he’s a super-bullish LNP supporter?

This won’t become contestable for Labor anytime soon. The LNP margin now is lower than when Labor had their heyday in 2007 but I can see it remaining safe indefinitely.

The LNP primary vote dropped at recent elections due to the popularity of minor populist, right wing or libertarian parties like ON, UAP and LDP. Surely this hammered the LNP’s 2PP in 2022 as preferences from minor party voters were split in different directions.

lnp should retain this. they are now in opposition and generally dont lose seats in qld while in opposition couple that with the anti govt vote at a state level and should be retained. i doubt labor will pickup seats in govt in qld

@Preselection_AU on Twitter says people are tying to organise a Teal candidate in Moncrieff and McPherson for the next election. These seats both have a decent Green vote but also a 7%-ish PHON vote unlike the existing teal seats.
Is there any chance they could win in either?
Also, is this similar to any of the existing teal seats? (I assume Mackellar would be the closest IF any of them would qualify, and that seems dubious based on the PHON vote in both seats)

@Daniel

A lot of the support for “far-right” parties in Europe (such as the PVV in the Netherlands) among young people is actually due to these parties espousing left-wing economic policies. The “anti-woke” and anti-immigration stances of these parties are much less of a factor, indeed it can be said that many young people are supporting these parties in spite of their social conservatism and nationalism.

Such a political movement could work in Australia and attract young voters. But right-wing parties in Australia so far have been too fiscally conservative and/or have emphasised social issues too much.

I have to point that far-right parties in Australia didnt creep into the youth like they did in Europe due to:
– Compulsory Voting
– Being a New World Country
– 30% Born Overseas mainly skilled
– 66% of Australians live in major cities where there a a great exposure of multiculturalism
– Lack of unity in Australian culture (a poll found around 60% of 18-24 are sceptical of Australia Day)
– Europe mainstream parties don’t have factions like Australia hence their “far right” have a more independent policy

Although I do agree that let say One Nation moved left in economic but start a culture war like Australia Day, it could make some inroads for youth in regional areas and certain outer sububs but it might only work well in Queensland and maybe SA and Whites in NT but would struggle to get votes in NSW and VIC.

I agree with Marh it is important to remember that countries like Netherlands, Denmark etc are Nation states where the state’s identity and main ethnicity are interlinked that is is not the case in Australia. It is also important to remember that Australia is a new world country and i feel that immigration works better in the new world. In Victoria especially the White Working Class is very small and starting a culture war on racial issue will not garner much success.

Nimalan, I do say that the far-right parties are weaker in New World like Australia, America, and Canada as their center-right party is more right-wing on average than the Europeans due to the party forming from a broad range of factions (Australia calls this ‘broad church’) so that allows right-wing populists to have a stake in the party thus allowing the GOP to move the right and allows “soft right-wing populist or centre-right populist” like Pierre Poilievre, Chris Luxon and Peter Dutton to be leaders. This is the same for the center-left which New World is more conservative than those in Europe due to the need for a broad church.

@Leon the only place in Queensland where a teal movement would be successful is in a seat like Brisbane or Ryan (or maybe Griffith).

Good point Marh
In European countries they have PR so a much larger number of parties including more niche ones.

@Neither Portal, I do point that Teals would not make inroads older ultra Wealthy old-miney in areas like Surfers Paradise, Toorak, Vaulcause and Hamilton (despite the popular belief) as there voting booths voted no in the Voice so that indicates they are probably more right-libertarian than a teal.
Just look at New Zealand’s richest electrote (Epsom) having the right-libertarian (ACT) winning heavily.

If you go back a few elections to when there was just an LNP candidate to 2022 when you have LNP+ON+LDP+UAP you don’t see much change – they fluctuate between 63 and 68% of the vote. The left vote is basically the same except the Greens are gradually getting more of the pie. Seriously hard to see a Teal getting any traction here. Ryan would always have been their best hope in Qld.

I think that proves my point that the Gold Coast is a conservative city:
– The inner city is populated by Wealthy old-money retirees rather than highly-educated professionals and students which is more common in every major city and some major regional centres
– Gold Coast has a high average age of 39 and a low rate of Bachelor Degree (21% which happens to be Queenslands average despite being an urban region)
– Every polling booth in the Gold Coast had a No Vote for the Voice Referendum (Ironically even some polling booths in the much smaller regional centre had a Yes Vote)
– Almost every booth had a LNP winning in the TPP
I think a factor here is many Young Gold Coast people move out by their 20s due to the lack of white collar jobs but more conservative older people from interstate move in

The Greens had their heyday in SEQ in 2022 but I sense in Moncreiff, the Greens vote will slide back as Gold Coast Greens turn their attention to Richmond. The combined vote for ON/UAP/LDP at 17% was quite inflated possibly due to one-off anti-vax or anti-lockdown sentiments but it might be because of the hard border between QLD and NSW during Covid. Given its reliance on tourism and the large number of transplants from interstate who couldn’t see their relatives for two years, there’s no doubt there was ‘anti-establishment’ anger.

A teal won’t win in Moncreiff or anywhere on the Gold Coast. It’s not the right environment. The LNP will keep winning indefinitely.

A teal/independent has more appeal in either affluent metropolitan small-l liberal electorates or regional areas where they are more open to voting independents (e.g. Helen Haines, Rob Oakeshott). Of course, the campaigning styles and mantras are different between the two types of electorates. In regional areas, the focus is more on presenting a non-Labor alternative and campaigning on local issues as well accountability and integrity. Net zero wouldn’t be front and centre as it would spook voters.

@ NP
Moncrieff contains
1. 100% of Southport
2. 72% of Gaven
3. 91% of Surfers Paradise
4. 54% of Mermaid Beach
5. 8% of Bonney

Booths to be posted tommorow

Booths
1. Ashmore
2. Bellevue Parl (Ashmore)
3. Benowa
4. Broadbeach
5. BroadbeachWaters
6. Bundall
7. Burleigh Heads (external)
8. Carrara
9. Highland Park
10. Isle of Capri
11. Keebra Park (southport)
12. Main Beach
13. Mermaid Beach
14. Merrimac (join)
15. Miami
16. Miami West
17. Molendiar
18. Nerang
19. Nerang East
20. Southport
21. Surfers Paradise
22. Worongary

@Nimalan thanks, will calculate.

State level TPP here:

* LNP: 62.4%
* Labor: 37.6%

Overall Labor did 1.2% worse on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022 despite overperforming in and around Nerang (in Gaven) thanks to Meaghan Scanlon’s personal vote there. This again shows the trend of Labor doing better on the state level in Brisbane (greatly varying by area) but slightly worse on the Gold Coast (and only slightly better on the Sunshine Coast).